Blog Post

How will inflation affect real estate investments

Andrés Glennen
Andrés Glennen
February 19, 2024
Investing

If you're here, it's because you're worried about how inflation will affect your real estate investments.

As inflation increases, so do real estate prices, which can affect the return on your investments.

If you're interested in discovering how to invest in real estate, here's a look at whether inflation will affect your real estate investments.

What is inflation and how is it measured?

Inflation is a generalized and sustained increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy over a given period.

It is measured through the consumer price index (CPI), which is a weighted average of the prices of a basket representing goods and services purchased by consumers. The CPI is updated regularly and is used as an indicator to measure inflation.

What are the effects of inflation on property prices?

Inflation is an economic phenomenon that can have a significant impact on property pricess and in the relationship between prices and profitability. Some of the most relevant effects of inflation on the housing market are described below.

Increase in costs

As costs rise, producers and suppliers need to charge higher prices to cover them, which can cause property prices to rise.

Decrease in purchasing power

Inflation can have a negative impact on the purchasing power of the currency, which can decrease the amount of money available to invest in real estate and reduce demand. This can have an impact on property prices, as supply adjusts to the new dynamic.

Interest rates

Inflation can also affect interest rates, which can destabilize the availability and cost of mortgage credit. When interest rates rise, it can be harder and more expensive to obtain a mortgage loan, which can deter buyers and negatively affect property prices.

How inflation affects the relationship between prices and profitability

Inflation can affect the relationship between prices and Profitability of a property in a number of ways.

The first one we'll mention is the discount rate, which is the rate used to calculate the present value of future cash flows in an investment. Another factor to consider is indebtedness. An increase in interest rates due to inflation can make it more expensive to finance the purchase or improvement of a property, which can decrease perceived profitability and, ultimately, negatively affect the price of the property.

It is important to note that, despite the possible negative effects of inflation on profitability, it is possible to find the positive side of the situation. For example, an inflationary period can have a positive impact on the value of real estate in the long term, since rent updates are likely to be greater in the future. It's important to keep in mind that inflation can be difficult to predict and control, so it's important to keep a long-term perspective and be prepared to adapt to changing market conditions.

Impact of inflation on the interest rate and its relationship with property prices

If inflation increases, central banks usually raise interest rates to counteract rising prices. This increase in interest rates can make it more expensive to obtain a mortgage loan, which can decrease the demand for real estate purchases and, consequently, lower property prices.

For example, suppose the interest rate is 5% and inflation is 2%. If inflation rises to 3%, central banks could increase the interest rate to 6% to counteract the effects of inflation. This would make it more expensive to obtain a mortgage loan, which could decrease the demand to buy real estate and, therefore, lower property prices.

What is the interest rate?

The interest rate on an investment is the amount of money charged for the use of the money expressed as an annual percentage. Interest rates can be fixed or variable and are used to determine the cost of investment.

What is the relationship between the interest rate and property prices?

The interest rate has a direct relationship with property prices. Within the financial world, there is the concept of “real rate”, it is an interest rate that takes inflation into account. It is formed by subtracting the inflation rate from the nominal rate. The real rate indicates the true cost or return of an investment, taking into account rising prices. If the real rate is positive, it means that the investment is generating a real profit after adjusting for inflation.

In a context of inflation, the real rate may vary and affect the return on an investment in the real estate market. For example, if the inflation rate is high, the real rate will be low and may discourage investors from investing in the housing market, which can have a negative impact on property prices.

How does inflation affect interest rates on mortgage loans?

An increase in interest rates can make mortgage loans more expensive, which in turn can decrease homebuying demand and lower property prices.

When inflation is high, banks adjust their interest rates to reflect higher financing costs. This makes mortgage loans more expensive, which can discourage homebuyers from obtaining a loan. In addition, the economic uncertainty that often accompanies inflation can make banks more cautious about who they lend and at what rates, being forced to adjust their rates to protect their profit margin and compensate for the loss in value of the currency due to inflation.

This can make it difficult for some buyers to qualify for a mortgage loan at reasonable rates, which can negatively affect demand for real estate and, therefore, property prices.

How inflation affects rental prices

Inflation can affect the demand for renting a property and, therefore, its profitability. An increase in inflation can decrease the purchasing power of tenants, which can decrease the demand for rent. On the other hand, the owner of the property can increase the rental price to cover the costs and maintain its profitability, but this can result in a critical point where the increase in the rental price makes the property less attractive to tenants and decreases demand.

Therefore, it is important to find a balance between covering costs and maintaining sustainable demand. Inflation can increase costs, but increasing the rental price too much can decrease demand and reduce profitability. Therefore, it is important to take inflation into account when determining the rental price and to seek a balance that covers costs and maintains sustainable demand. The rental price may need to be adjusted periodically to maintain this balance as inflation levels change.

Recommendations for making informed investment decisions in an inflationary environment

Inflation is an economic phenomenon that cannot be avoided and that can have a significant impact on our daily lives, including our investments. Therefore, it's important to consider strategies to protect our real estate investments against the negative effects of inflation and to make informed decisions. Below are some strategies and recommendations for making informed investment decisions in an inflationary environment.

  • Multipurpose properties: Investing in multipurpose properties, such as office buildings and homes, can increase investment resilience to inflation.
  • Geographic Diversification: Geographic diversification can help mitigate the impact of inflation in a single area.
  • Properties in defensive sectors: Investing in property in defensive sectors, such as healthcare or education, can provide greater stability in an inflationary environment.
  • Long-term investments: Long-term investments can help mitigate the impact of inflation as prices rise over time.
  • Adjustable interest rates: Considering investments with adjustable interest rates can help protect against inflation as interest rates rise.

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